A leading China analyst says Australia should beware of a likely "jasmine revolution" in China. The warning came from Will Hutton, an author and governor at the London School of Economics, who says China is a "tinderbox" as Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard embarks on a trip to the country this week.
China buys one quarter of all Australian exports and any destabilisation of the middle kingdom could have serious consequences for Australia, Mr Hutton told the ABC.
China has embarked on a new round of brutal suppression of activists and dissidents, including renowned artist Ai Weiwei, in a bid to pre-empt the so-called "jasmine revolution" following the "Arab Spring" uprisings that swept through North Africa and the Middle East.
Mr Hutton said while it was not clear when China could be hit by a people's revolt, it already had a fragile financial system that could lead to further social unrest.
"There's an iron rule in economics - you know, what's unsustainable can't be sustained," Mr Hutton said about China's increase of its foreign exchange reserves to $US3 trillion ($2.86 trillion) - up a hefty $US600 billion in 12 months.
"The Chinese cannot carry on acquiring foreign exchange reserves like this. It's a massive distortion. This is all about to blow, and if you're in Australia, beware."
Mr Hutton, who was also an editor-in-chief at British newspaper The Observer and has written the book The Writing on the Wall: China and the West in the 21st Century, said the Chinese were extremely self-confident, but warned that "pride comes before a fall" and the country was "an accident waiting to happen".
"They really believe that it's the Chinese century. They really believe they - despite the problems, they can handle them, and they really think that they're emerging as Asia's top dog.
"And they will be understanding the visit of the Australian prime minister as, not quite in these terms, but nearly a form of tribute being played by a client state.
"[T]he Chinese financial system is many times more fragile than the American and British and Western banking system was in the run-up to the financial crash in 2008. I mean, it's lent many times more than GDP now. Many of those loans, there's no interest paid or principal ever repaid. I mean, this is an accident waiting to happen."
Mr Hutton said it was important Ms Gillard "put a marker down" and express Australia's unhappiness with the crackdown.
"[A]s we're discovering in North Africa and certainly discovered in Egypt, actually for Western powers, it makes much more sense in the end to stand up for what you've always believed in rather than temporise," Mr Hutton told the Lateline program.
"Chinese citizens respect that and they will - one way or another the news gets through. And there will be successors to this communist regime and they will always remember the fact that the actually the Australians were on the right side of history."
Ms Gillard raised the topic of human rights with Beijing's fourth-ranked leader, Jia Qinglin, during his visit to Canberra two weeks ago.
But specific cases, such as the arrest of Mr Ai, who helped to design the Beijing Olympics's 'Bird's Nest' stadium, and the disappearance and reappearance of Chinese-Australian blogger Yang Hengjun, were not believed to have been raised.
Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd, who also met with Mr Jia, had raised the human rights situations in Tibet and Xinjiang, his spokesman said.
The Mandarin speaker found himself in conflict with the Chinese leadership over human rights, investment and the arrest of then Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu during his time as Prime Minister.
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